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1 September 2011 Historical Analysis of the Spring Arrival of Migratory Birds to Dutchess County, New York: A 123-Year Record
Jessica Vitale, William H. Schlesinger
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Abstract

Through an examination of historical records maintained by a local bird club, consisting of naturalist diaries, daily check-lists, and informal bird surveys, we found that 44 springtime migrant bird species show evidence of an increasingly early first arrival date (FAD) during a 123-year record (1885 to 2008) in Dutchess County, NY. Ninety-one percent of the species showed a significant advance in FAD over this period, with the mean advance being 11.6 days/century. Using truncations of the full data-set corresponding to available data for changes in observer effort and population trends, we found that adding these ancillary independent variables to a multiple linear regression contributed little to explain the change in FAD in recent years. The advance in FAD is potentially an index of global climate change in this region.

Jessica Vitale and William H. Schlesinger "Historical Analysis of the Spring Arrival of Migratory Birds to Dutchess County, New York: A 123-Year Record," Northeastern Naturalist 18(3), 335-346, (1 September 2011). https://doi.org/10.1656/045.018.0306
Published: 1 September 2011
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