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7 March 2017 Ecological Niche Model for Predicting Distribution of Disease-Vector Mosquitoes in Yucatán State, México
Carlos M. Baak-Baak, David A. Moo-Llanes, Nohemi Cigarroa–Toledo, Fernando I. Puerto, Carlos Machain-Williams, Guadalupe Reyes-Solis, Yoshinori J. Nakazawa, Armando Ulloa-Garcia, Julian E. Garcia-Rejon
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Abstract

The majority of the Yucatán State, México, presents subtropical climate that is suitable for many species of mosquitoes that are known to be vectors of diseases, including those from the genera Aedes and Culex. The objective of this study is to identify the geographic distribution of five species from these two genera and estimate the human population at risk of coming in contact with them. We compiled distributional data for Aedes aegypti (L.), Aedes (Howardina) cozumelensis (Diaz Najera), Culex coronator Dyar and Knab, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, and Culex thriambus Dyar from several entomological studies in Yucatán between March 2010 and September 2014. Based on these data, we constructed ecological niche models to predict the spatial distribution of each species using the MaxEnt algorithm. Our models identified areas with suitable environments for Ae. aegypti in most of Yucatán. A similar percentage of urban (97.1%) and rural (96.5%) populations were contained in areas of highest suitability for Ae. aegypti, and no spatial pattern was found (Moran's I = 0.33, P = 0.38); however, we found an association of abundance of immature forms of this species with annual mean temperature (r = 0.19, P≤0.001) and annual precipitation (r = 0.21, P≤0.001). Aedes cozumelensis is also distributed in most areas of the Yucatán State; Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. coronator, and Cx. thriambus are restricted to the northwest. The information generated in this study can inform decision-making to address control measures in priority areas with presence of these vectors.

© The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com
Carlos M. Baak-Baak, David A. Moo-Llanes, Nohemi Cigarroa–Toledo, Fernando I. Puerto, Carlos Machain-Williams, Guadalupe Reyes-Solis, Yoshinori J. Nakazawa, Armando Ulloa-Garcia, and Julian E. Garcia-Rejon "Ecological Niche Model for Predicting Distribution of Disease-Vector Mosquitoes in Yucatán State, México," Journal of Medical Entomology 54(4), 854-861, (7 March 2017). https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjw243
Received: 28 June 2016; Accepted: 19 December 2016; Published: 7 March 2017
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KEYWORDS
Aedes aegypti
ecological niche model
spatial distribution
Yucatán State
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