The brown-winged green bug, Plautia stali Scott, mainly reproduces on Japanese cedar or cypress cones in Japanese plantation forests during summer and autumn. It often depletes its food sources in forest habitats and moves to cultivated crops in large numbers. To establish an easy method for assessing the risk of fruit orchard infestation by P. stali, we conducted a 3-yr field survey that monitored the attraction of bugs to the synthetic P. stali aggregation pheromone using a sticky trap.We used a morphological indicator, variable body size depending on food intake, to estimate the nutritional status in nymphs, which showed that nymphs attracted to the synthetic pheromone were starving. Comparisons between increasing changes in the number of stylet sheaths left on the cones by P. stali and the number of trapped nymphs show that monitoring nymphs with the pheromone-baited sticky trap is useful for inferring conditions regarding food resources in forest habitats. The trend toward trapping second instars can provide a timely overview of resource competition for cones. Trapping middle-to-late (third—fifth) instars is a warning that the cones are finally depleted and that there is a high probability that adults will leave the forests and invade the orchards. In addition, trends in trapping adults suggest that there is a potential risk of orchard infestation by the pest and predict the intensity and period of the invasion. The pheromone-baited sticky trap is an easy but useful survey tool for predicting P. stali orchard infestations.