The advent of community-science databases in conjunction with museum specimen locality information has exponentially increased the power and accuracy of ecological niche modeling (ENM). Increased occurrence data has provided colossal potential to understand the distributions of lesser known or endangered species, including arthropods. Although niche modeling of termites has been conducted in the context of invasive and pest species, few studies have been performed to understand the distribution of basal termite genera. Using specimen records from the American Museum of Natural History (AMNH) as well as locality databases, we generated ecological niche models for 12 basal termite species belonging to six genera and three families. We extracted environmental data from the Worldclim 19 bioclimatic dataset v2, along with SoilGrids datasets and generated models using MaxEnt. We chose Optimal models based on partial Receiving Operating characteristic (pROC) and omission rate criterion and determined variable importance using permutation analysis. We also calculated response curves to understand changes in suitability with changes in environmental variables. Optimal models for our 12 termite species ranged in complexity, but no discernible pattern was noted among genera, families, or geographic range. Permutation analysis revealed that habitat suitability is affected predominantly by seasonal or monthly temperature and precipitation variation. Our findings not only highlight the efficacy of largely community-science and museum-based datasets, but our models provide a baseline for predictions of future abundance of lesser-known arthropod species in the face of habitat destruction and climate change.

Graphical Abstract