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9 December 2015 Comparison of Thermal Performance Equations in Describing Temperature-Dependent Developmental Rates of Insects: (I) Empirical Models
Pei-Jian Shi, Gadi V. P. Reddy, Lei Chen, Feng Ge
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Abstract

Temperature greatly affects the developmental duration of insects at their different stages, and many mathematical models exist for describing their temperature-dependent developmental rates. It is important to choose a suitable model to predict outbreaks of pest insects under climate change. However, previous comparisons among these models were usually based on a single species. In the present study, we compared the six nonlinear models (the Briére-1, Briére-2, Lactin, Performance-2, beta, and Ratkowsky models) based on the goodness of fit and the trade-off between the model's goodness of fit and structural complexity, using 10 temperaturedependent developmental rate datasets on insects to make the conclusions general. We found that the square root model (i.e., the Ratkowsky model) fitted all datasets well, and the curve shape produced by this model also approximates the curve shape of thermodynamically based mathematical models. The square root model was originally derived to be applicable to the growth rates of bacteria, and until now it has been generally ignored in entomology. We were mainly concerned with the predicted results obtained by using this model on observations of temperature-dependent developmental rates. We found that the square root model described well the pooled developmental rates in the low-, mid-, and high-temperature ranges, and we believe that it merits wider use in entomology.

© The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com
Pei-Jian Shi, Gadi V. P. Reddy, Lei Chen, and Feng Ge "Comparison of Thermal Performance Equations in Describing Temperature-Dependent Developmental Rates of Insects: (I) Empirical Models," Annals of the Entomological Society of America 109(2), 211-215, (9 December 2015). https://doi.org/10.1093/aesa/sav121
Received: 5 October 2015; Accepted: 12 November 2015; Published: 9 December 2015
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KEYWORDS
goodness of fit
nonlinear
pest outbreak
square root model
structural complexity
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